Secret Russian Deals Right After Inauguration

See this Business Insider Article

What does this mean?

Let’s recap a few things:

  1. The Trump administration had multiple opportunities to coordinate with the Russians through Flynn, Sessions, Kushner and others. We don’t know that they did anything inappropriate though…
  2. The Trump administration attempted to set up ‘secret backchannels’ to the Russians. We don’t know that they intended to misuse them though…
  3. The Trump administration outwardly coordinated with Russian intelligence on mass media, asking them to further hack Hillary’s emails. We don’t know that the Russians cooperated and communicated back though…
  4. We know that in broad stances, the Trump administration has played into Russian strategy – attacking democracy at home, supporting Christian Nationalism, disrupting Nato and pissing off our allies. We don’t know that they did these things because the Russians asked though…
  5. We know that Russia interfered in the election specifically to help Trump win and Clinton lose. We don’t know that they sent communication to the Trump administration about this though…
  6. We know that Stone and Manafort have a history of working with dictatorships and the scum of the earth. We don’t know that they’d work with Russia though…

And now we know the following:

7. The Trump administration was going to shut down sanctions, return Russian assets, and otherwise wipe out the punishments levied on them after the election. We don’t know that Russia asked them to, though…

So, good bayesians, with all of the above as our priors what are our confidences on the following beliefs:

  1. Trump colluded with the Russians
  2. Trump did not collude with the Russians

For the second to be true, we’d basically have to believe that items 1 through 7 were massive fucking coincidences.

  • That Trump had multiple opportunities to talk, secret back channels even, but never actually talked about what Russia was doing to the emails. Never coordinated.
  • That Trump received something from Russia, and he plotted to give something back both concretely and strategically, but there was no actual quid pro quo agreement on these deals. They were all apparently random events.
  • That we know the people in Trump’s campaign have done all this before, have played dirty games, but this time they played by the rules.

What are the odds?

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